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Post subject: Re: AMD market share up close to 25% since last quarter
Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 5:50 am
Joined: Sat Jul 25, 2009 2:08 pm Posts: 48
Hans de Vries wrote:
Production start (wafer starts) of 45nm was in the very last week of H1 2008, shipping to server OEM's started three months later in October and systems were shipped to customers in November.
They said that wafer starts at Dresden were 100% at 45nm in April or May 2009. Any 65nm parts sold now should be from older stocks.
Regards, Hans.
I didn't see that AMD statement but if it was i see it as false one. Even now AMD notebooks have 65nm cpu. 45nm was declared and announced about whole eight OEMs which support them but i see nothing on horizon.
BTW, already a few times AMD wrote down 65nm parts. Quite a lot they produced!
Post subject: Re: AMD market share up close to 25% since last quarter
Posted: Sat Sep 26, 2009 2:43 pm
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 11:57 am Posts: 190
yfe wrote:
Hans de Vries wrote:
Production start (wafer starts) of 45nm was in the very last week of H1 2008, shipping to server OEM's started three months later in October and systems were shipped to customers in November.
They said that wafer starts at Dresden were 100% at 45nm in April or May 2009. Any 65nm parts sold now should be from older stocks.
Regards, Hans.
I didn't see that AMD statement but if it was i see it as false one. Even now AMD notebooks have 65nm cpu. 45nm was declared and announced about whole eight OEMs which support them but i see nothing on horizon.
BTW, already a few times AMD wrote down 65nm parts. Quite a lot they produced!
They sure made that statement. Don't forget It takes about three months from wafer start to parts being ready to be shipped or stocked.
Post subject: Re: AMD market share up close to 25% since last quarter
Posted: Sun Sep 27, 2009 8:48 am
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2007 7:46 am Posts: 142
yfe wrote:
Hans de Vries wrote:
Production start (wafer starts) of 45nm was in the very last week of H1 2008, shipping to server OEM's started three months later in October and systems were shipped to customers in November.
They said that wafer starts at Dresden were 100% at 45nm in April or May 2009. Any 65nm parts sold now should be from older stocks.
Regards, Hans.
I didn't see that AMD statement but if it was i see it as false one. Even now AMD notebooks have 65nm cpu. 45nm was declared and announced about whole eight OEMs which support them but i see nothing on horizon.
BTW, already a few times AMD wrote down 65nm parts. Quite a lot they produced!
Taking your tremendous posting record on the subject "AMD" into account you might have known that the journalist was way off in the first place, but what you did was just amplifying the noise.....
SAN FRANCISCO—One year after a perfect storm-type financial crisis created the mother of all semiconductor industry downturns, the world's No. 1 chip maker is once again sitting pretty. Thanks to a surprising rebound in the PC market, Intel Corp. on Tuesday (Oct. 13) exceeded analyst expectations with its third-quarter results and a fourth-quarter sales target that, if accurate, would put the company essentially back to the same quarterly run rate it had before all hell broke loose.
[..]
Despite continual efforts to diversify, as the PC market goes, so goes Intel. Otellini acknowledged as much Tuesday when he said he doesn't believe Intel can grow much above the PC growth rate. He said the company has picked up market share during the course of the year and may pick up more in the fourth quarter. "At the end of the day, we need the volume," he said. "We need the PC market to grow."
AMD reports its Q3 results tomorrow. Did they get pulled along by the draft from the big blue truck or did they fall under one of its tires?
Post subject: Re: AMD market share up close to 25% since last quarter
Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 12:59 pm
Joined: Sat Jul 25, 2009 2:08 pm Posts: 48
Quote:
Hans de Vries: They said that wafer starts at Dresden were 100% at 45nm in April or May 2009. Any 65nm parts sold now should be from older stocks.
AMD lied. As of Q3-2009 AMD failed to reach crossover in 45nm shipment.
Quote:
Robert J. Rivet: 2009-Q3 Earnings Call Well I’d kind of characterize it this way. We went from a majority of the shipments in the third quarter being 65 nanometer to much more balance in this quarter (Q4), to driving to much more significant 45 nanometer from fourth quarter and beyond.
Post subject: Re: AMD market share up close to 25% since last quarter
Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:13 pm
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 11:57 am Posts: 190
yfe wrote:
Quote:
Hans de Vries: They said that wafer starts at Dresden were 100% at 45nm in April or May 2009. Any 65nm parts sold now should be from older stocks.
AMD lied. As of Q3-2009 AMD failed to reach crossover in 45nm shipment.
Quote:
Robert J. Rivet: 2009-Q3 Earnings Call Well I’d kind of characterize it this way. We went from a majority of the shipments in the third quarter being 65 nanometer to much more balance in this quarter (Q4), to driving to much more significant 45 nanometer from fourth quarter and beyond.
I don't think they lied. The wafer starts in April or May left the fab in July or August to get lined up behind large inventories of unsold 65nm products which did build up as a result of the economical crisis.
Derrick Meyer:: 2009-Q3 Earnings Call wrote:
You know honestly the economic crisis really delayed the rate at which we were able to transition our sales from 65 to 45 because you know obviously we had a bunch of 65 nanometer inventory leaving last year that took us much longer to sell out into the market over the course of this year. So you know the fact that we’re still transitioning to 45 on an output basis is really misleading relative to when we ramped.
Post subject: Re: AMD market share up close to 25% since last quarter
Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 1:36 pm
Joined: Sat Jul 25, 2009 2:08 pm Posts: 48
Do you really believe in that? Who did they ramp up production back in 2008 for, when Intel had already had for a year 45nm parts and AMD itself started shipment 45nm Shanghai? Who in his right mind would have bought 65nm parts in 2009 in server and desktop markets when AMD already had 45nm parts? AMD wrote down 65nm inventories in Q1-2009 and in Q2-2009. AMD started production 65nm bug-free Barcelona and Phenom in Q1-2008 only. That is why, i see D.Meyer statement as another lie.
The truth, as i suppose, is that the yield of 45nm SOI is in very bad shape.
Last edited by yfe on Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Post subject: Re: AMD market share up close to 25% since last quarter
Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 2:27 pm
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2007 11:57 am Posts: 190
yfe wrote:
Do you really believe in that? Who did they ramp up production back in 2008 for, when Intel had already had for a year 45nm parts and AMD itself started shipment 45nm Shanghai? Who in his right mind would have bought 65nm parts in 2009 in server and desktop markets when AMD already had 45nm parts? AMD wrote down 65nm inventories in Q1-2009 and in Q2-2009. AMD started production 65nm bug-free Barcelona and Phenom in Q1-2007 only. That is why, i see D.Meyer statement as another lie.
The truth, as i suppose, is that the yield of 45nm SOI is in very bad shape.
What is there so hard to believe?
100% wafer starts at 45nm in April or May means there still came 65nm products out of the fab in July or August after 3 months total production time. that's well in Q3. This explains why, together with a few months worth of 65nm inventory, there are still some 65nm sales right now.
Post subject: Re: AMD market share up close to 25% since last quarter
Posted: Fri Oct 16, 2009 3:52 pm
Joined: Sat Jul 25, 2009 2:08 pm Posts: 48
Hans de Vries wrote:
What is there so hard to believe?
100% wafer starts at 45nm in April or May means there still came 65nm products out of the fab in July or August after 3 months total production time. that's well in Q3. This explains why, together with a few months worth of 65nm inventory, there are still some 65nm sales right now.
Regards, Hans
Not some but less than 50%. BTW, even 45nm Congo for notebooks will less than 50% in Q4 (but maybe more than 10%, Derrick R. Meyer). In any case, trust or no trust to AMDers, it's up to you.
Right now, it's looking like Intel is better positioned against AMD although the Sunnyvale, Calif., microprocessor and graphics IC company managed to hold its position and even improved revenue performance in the recently ended quarter.
Still, it was obvious Intel made the most gains with its market share rising above 80 percent and moving closer to the 82.4 percent it claimed in the third quarter of 2005, according to market researcher iSuppli Corp. Also, although Intel's revenue fell on a year-over-year basis during the third quarter, the 8 percent drop was not as severe as AMD's 23 percent decline during the same period.
The two companies were better matched on a sequential basis, with sales rising 17 percent from the second quarter at AMD and approximately 17.5 percent at Intel.
Intel's outlook for Q4 is somewhat more optimistic than AMD's:
Normal market conditions are expected to resume sometime in the fourth quarter and stretching into the traditionally weaker first quarter. AMD is expecting fourth quarter sales to be up "modestly" while Intel is predicting sales of $10.1 billion—plus or minus $400 million—up between 7.5 percent and 11.7 percent sequentially from $9.4 billion in the third quarter.
Looking forward even further:
While AMD's financial position has strongly improved from the year-ago period—it has retired about $419 million in convertible notes over the last year—the company is still struggling. It still has considerable long-term debts and its ability to compete against Intel is severely limited by both the debt position and resources for capital expenditure as well as research and development.
In 2009, for instance, Intel is budgeting $4.5 billion for capital expenditure compared with $650 million for both AMD and GlobalFoundries.
In Q3 AMD shareholder equity dropped to negative $569m (-$0.85 per share).
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